Credits: Article and images by Raman Kalra @ Quill & Pad. See the original article here - https://quillandpad.com/2023/12/08/watch-market-predictions-2024-is-the-tide-turning/
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There are countless examples of where watches have taken a large leap upwards, and now that the majority of consumers have to be more considered, it beckons the question as to whether some watches are worth their asking price.
My prediction is we will start to see prices soften. The trend is already evident in the secondary market where the premiums on in-demand watches have dropped, and for others, you are finding discounts.
Eventually, brands will be affected negatively by this shift in demand and will need to react. I think this can come via three different channels.
First, there could be a pause on any further price hikes. With this idea, brands have front-loaded the next few cycles of price hikes and, from here on, prices will be more stable.
This can be the case in both the short and medium term, and eventually, as inflation hits everything else, including salaries (hopefully!), the relative affordability and value of these watches improve.
The second channel could be the re-emergence of discounts available at authorized dealers. Brands have tried to squash this practice over time and have been pretty effective at doing so. Yet, if demand slows and stock needs to move, discounts could reappear.
To some degree, you are starting to see this with particular “one-time” sales found online, although I do believe the discount route can be an effective option.
Third and finally, brands can lower the average and median price by launching more affordable options. It’s hard to regress the prices of watches already on offer, so you may start to see a shift where new releases are coming at the lower end of the spectrum.
I think this would be the best method as it can provide new, interesting entry points to a brand and simultaneously not devalue the more expensive pieces on offer.
However, this option would take the most time to come into effect. Deciding to broaden a collection, and then develop and launch new watches takes time.
Regardless of the method, in my opinion, we are at an inflection point and the overall retail market will get softer, following the trends already seen on the secondary side.
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Credits: Article and images by Raman Kalra @ Quill & Pad. See the original article here - https://quillandpad.com/2023/12/08/watch-market-predictions-2024-is-the-tide-turning/